Opinion polling for the 2024 French legislative election

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which will be held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.

National polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted since the 2022 legislative election
Local regression of polls conducted since the election was called on 10 June 2024

First round

The 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.[a]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout EXG NFP DVG ECO ENS DVC DSV DVD LR
(CNI)[b] 		RN and allies REC REG Others
LFI PCF LE PS LR (UXD)[c] RN
Harris Interactive 27–28 Jun 2024 2,182 – 0.5% 28% 1% – 20% 1% 0.5% 2% 6% 3% 34% 2% – 2%
Ifop 25–28 Jun 2024 2,824 67% 1% 29% 1% – 20.5% 0.5% – 7% 36.5% 1.5% – 3%
Elabe 26–27 Jun 2024 1,871 64% 1% 27.5% 2% – 20% 0.5% 0.5%[d] 9% 36% 1.5% – 2%
Odoxa 26–27 Jun 2024 1,896 66% 1% 27.5% 1.5% 1% 21% – – 2% 7% 35% 1.5% – 2.5%
OpinionWay 26–27 Jun 2024 1,058 65% 1% 28% 1% <1% 20% – – 2% 6% 37% 1% – 4%
Cluster17 25–27 Jun 2024 2,465 65% 1.5% 29.5% 1% – 20% 1% – 1.5% 7.5% 4% 31% 1.5% – 1.5%
Ifop 24–27 Jun 2024 2,823 66% 0.5% 29% 1% – 21% 1% – 6.5% 36% 1.5% – 3.5%
Harris Interactive 25–26 Jun 2024 2,014 – 0.5% 27% 1% – 21% 0.5% 0.5% 2% 6% 3% 34% 2% – 2.5%
OpinionWay 25–26 Jun 2024 1,035 – 1% 28% 1% 1% 20% – – 2% 7% 36% 2% – 2%
Ifop 22–26 Jun 2024 2,343 66% 1% 28.5% 1% – 21% 1% – 6% 36% 1% – 4.5%
Ifop 21–25 Jun 2024 2,335 64.5% 1% 28.5% 0.5% – 21% 1% – 6.5% 36% 1.5% – 4%
Cluster17 22–24 Jun 2024 2,470 64.5% 1.5% 30% 1.5% – 19.5% 1% – 1.5% 7.5% 4% 30.5% 1.5% – 1.5%
Harris Interactive 21–24 Jun 2024 2,004 – 1% 27% 1% – 20% 1% 0.5% 2% 7% 4% 33% 2% – 1.5%
Ipsos 21–24 Jun 2024 11,820 63% 1% 29% 1% – 19.5% 1.5% 0.5% 8% 4% 32% 1.5% – 2%
Ifop 20–24 Jun 2024 1,843 63.5% 1% 29.5% 1% – 20.5% 1% – 7% 36% 1% – 3%
Ifop 19–22 Jun 2024 1,853 64% 1.5% 29% 1% – 21% 1% – 7% 35.5% 1% – 3%
Elabe 19–21 Jun 2024 1,870 63% 1% 27% 2% – 20% 0.5% 0.5%[d] 10% 36% 1.5% – 1.5%
Ifop 18–21 Jun 2024 2,317 64% 1% 29% 1% – 21.5% 1% – 6.5% 35% 1.5% – 3.5%
Harris Interactive 19–20 Jun 2024 2,004 – 1% 26% 1% – 21% 1% 0.5% 2% 6% 2% 33% 3% – 3.5%
Ipsos 19–20 Jun 2024 2,000 62% 1.5% 29.5% 1% – 19.5% 1% 1.5% 7% 4% 31.5% 2% – 1.5%
Odoxa 19–20 Jun 2024 1,861 64% 2% 28% 3% 1.5% 19% – – 1% 7% 33% 3.5% – 2%
OpinionWay 19–20 Jun 2024 1,009 – 1% 28% 1% <1% 22% – – 3% 6% 35% 1% – 3%
Ifop 18–20 Jun 2024 1,861 64% 1% 29% 1% – 22% 1% – 6% 34% 2% – 4%
OpinionWay 18–20 Jun 2024 1,057 – <1% 27% 2% 1% 20% – – 2% 7% 35% 2% – 4%
Cluster17 17–19 Jun 2024 2,654 60.5% 1% 30% 3% – 19% – – 2.5% 7% 32% 2.5% – 3%
Ifop 14–17 Jun 2024 1,131 62% 1.5% 28% 3% – 18% – 0.5% 2% 5% 4% 33% 3% – 2%
Ifop 13–14 Jun 2024 1,114 63% 1% 26% 3.5% – 19% – 1% 1.5% 7% 35% 3% – 3%
OpinionWay 12–13 Jun 2024 1,011 – 1% 25% 2% 2% 20% – – 2% 7% 33% 3% – 5%
Cluster17 11–13 Jun 2024 2,764 60% 1% 28.5% 3% 1.5% 18% 1% 1.5% 2.5% 7% 29.5% 3.5% 1% 2%
Elabe 11–12 Jun 2024 1,422 57% 1% 28% 5% – 18% – – 2% 6.5% 31% 4% – 4.5%
OpinionWay 11–12 Jun 2024 1,019 – 1% 25% 3% 1% 19% – – 1% 9% 32% 4% – 5%
Ifop 10–11 Jun 2024 1,089 – 1% 25% 5% – 18% – 0.5% 1.5% 9% 35% 4% – 1%
1% 11% 19% 3% – 17% – <0.5% 2% 8% 34% 4% – 1%
1% 11% 2% 6% 13% 2% – 16% – 0.5% 1% 8% 35% 3.5% – 1%
OpinionWay 10 Jun 2024 1,095 – 1% 23% 4% 2% 18% – – 2% 8% 33% 5% – 4%
Harris Interactive 9–10 Jun 2024 2,340 – 3% 22% 9% – 19% – – 9% 34% 4% – –
Ifop 12–13 Dec 2023 1,100 – 1.5% 24% 6% – 19% – 1% 3% 11% 28% 5% – 1.5%
1% 10% 4% 9% 8% 2% – 18% – 1% 3% 10% 27% 6% – 1%
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,699 – 1% 25.5% 3% – 21.5% – 1.5% 1% 11.5% 24.5% 4.5% – 6%
Ifop 20–21 Mar 2023 1,094 – 1% 26% 5% – 22% – 1% 2% 10% 26% 5% – 2%
1% 11% 3% 9% 7% 3% – 21% – 1% 1% 10% 26% 5% – 2%
Harris Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 – 1% 24% 6% – 24% 1% 1% 3% 10% 22% 4% – 4%
Cluster17 4–6 Nov 2022 2,096 56.9% 1.5% 24.5% 3% 1%[e] 25% 0.5% 2% 2% 10.5% 20% 5% 1% 4%
Ifop 2–4 Nov 2022 1,396 – 1.5% 25% 4% – 27% – 0.5% 2% 11% 21% 5.5% – 2.5%
1.5% 11% 3% 7% 8% 2% – 26% – 0% 3% 11% 21% 5% – 1.5%
Ministry of the Interior
(Le Monde) 		12 Jun 2022 — 47.51% 1.17%
(1.19%) 		25.66%
(26.16%) 		3.70%
(3.30%) 		2.67%
(–) 		25.75%
(25.80%) 		1.25%
(1.30%) 		1.13%
(1.21%) 		2.33%
(1.92%) 		11.29%
(11.30%) 		18.68%
(18.68%) 		4.24%
(4.25%) 		1.28%
(1.09%) 		0.85%
(3.80%)

Seat projections

Even though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:

  • the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
  • the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
  • the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
  • the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
  • the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
  • the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.

Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.[f]

These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.[g]

The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.[a]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size NFP DVG ENS DVC DVD LR
(CNI)[b] 		RN and allies DSV Others
LFI PCF LE PS LR (UXD)[c] RN
Harris Interactive 27–28 Jun 2024 2,182 120–150 – 80–130 – – 30–50 20–35 220–260 0–2 10–20
Ifop 25–28 Jun 2024 2,824 170–200 10–18 70–100 – 30–60 225–265[h] – 1–5
Elabe 26–27 Jun 2024 1,871 155–175 85–105 – 30–40 260–295 – 8–10
Odoxa 26–27 Jun 2024 1,896 150–190 70–110 – 15–45 265–305 – –
Cluster17 25–27 Jun 2024 2,465 180–220 – 65–110 – – 25–35 210–255 – 20–30
Ifop 24–27 Jun 2024 2,823 180–210 5–9 75–110 – 25–50 220–260[i] – 6–10
Harris Interactive 25–26 Jun 2024 2,014 125–155 – 75–125 – – 30–50 20–35 230–270 0–2 10–20
Ifop 22–26 Jun 2024 2,343 180–210 5–9 75–110 – 23–50 220–260[i] – 5–9
Ifop 21–25 Jun 2024 2,335 180–210 5–9 75–110 – 25–50 220–260[i] – 4–8
Cluster17 22–24 Jun 2024 2,470 180–230 – 65–100 – – 25–40 210–250 – 20–30
Harris Interactive 21–24 Jun 2024 2,044 150–180 – 85–130 – – 30–50 15–30 215–245 0–2 10–20
Ifop 20–24 Jun 2024 1,843 185–215 6–10 70–100 – 30–50 220–260[i] – 3–7
Ifop 19–22 Jun 2024 1,853 180–210 7–11 75–105 – 40–60 210–250[i] – 3–8
Elabe 19–21 Jun 2024 1,870 150–170 90–110 – 35–45 250–280 – 10–12
Ifop 18–21 Jun 2024 2,317 180–210 8–12 80–110 – 40–60 200–240[i] – 5–10
Harris Interactive 19–20 Jun 2024 2,004 135–165 – 95–130 – – 30–50 15–30 220–250 0–2 10–20
Odoxa 19–20 Jun 2024 1,861 160–210 70–120 – 10–50 250–300 – –
Cluster17 17–19 Jun 2024 2,654 190–240 – 70–100 – – 20–30 200–250 – 20–30
Cluster17 11–13 Jun 2024 2,764 190–235 10–14 70–100 – – 23–35 195–245 – 10–16
Elabe 11–12 Jun 2024 1,422 150–190 90–130 – 30–40 220–270 – 10–20
Harris-Interactive 9–10 Jun 2024 2,340 115–145 – 125–155 – 40–55 235–265 0–2 5–20
Ipsos (for LR) 8–13 Dec 2023 4,000 55–79 20–22 117–165 3 7–8 44–60 243–305 – 10–11
Elabe 3–5 Apr 2023 1,699 150–180 15–20 130–155 60–75 150–175 1–2 12–15
Harris-Interactive 3–7 Mar 2023 2,108 158–168 234–244 69–79 91–100 8–14
Ministry of the Interior
(Le Monde) 		19 Jun 2022 — 131
(142) 		22
(13) 		245
(246) 		4
(5) 		74
(73) 		89
(89) 		1
(1) 		11
(8)

By second round configuration

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size NFP (any party) NFP
(depends
on party) 		ENS RN Abstention/
blank/null vote/
don't know
LFI PCF LE PS
Odoxa 26–27 Jun 2024 1,005 25% 9% – 38% 28%
17% 10% 21% 34% 18%
OpinionWay 17–18 Jun 2024 1,044 33% – 41% 26%
– 40% 37% 23%

By constituency

Because the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.

Alpes-Maritimes's 1st

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Alain Langouet
LO 		Olivier Salerno
NFP–LFI 		Graig Monetti
ENS–HOR 		Lalla Chama Ben Moulay
ÉAC 		Virgile Vanier-Guérin
LR (CNI) 		Éric Ciotti
LR (UXD) 		Jean-Claude Wahid Spach
DG 		Maxime Bovis
SE
Ifop 25–27 Jun 2024 543 0.5% 26% 22% 3% 5.5% 42% 0.5% 0.5%

Second round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Olivier Salerno
NFP–LFI 		Graig Monetti
ENS–HOR 		Éric Ciotti
LR (UXD)
Ifop 25–27 Jun 2024 543 27% 27% 46%
40% – 60%

Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Bernadette Gasc
LO 		Xavier Czapla
NFP–LFI 		Jérôme Cahuzac
DVG 		Guillaume Lepers
LR (CNI) 		Annick Cousin
RN
Ifop 24–26 Jun 2024 561 1% 19% 23% 19% 38%

Second round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Xavier Czapla
NFP–LFI 		Jérôme Cahuzac
DVG 		Annick Cousin
RN
Ifop 24–26 Jun 2024 561 22% 31% 47%
– 49% 51%

Nord's 10th

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Christophe Charlon
LO 		Leslie Mortreux
NFP–REV 		Gérald Darmanin
ENS–RE 		Jérôme Garcia
LR 		Bastien Verbrugghe
RN 		Gustave Viguie-Desplaces
REC 		Marcelin Brazon
Résistons!
Ifop 18–20 Jun 2024 602 1.5% 24% 42% 2.5% 28% 1% 1%

Second round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Leslie Mortreux
NFP–REV 		Gérald Darmanin
ENS–RE 		Bastien Verbrugghe
RN
Ifop 18–20 Jun 2024 602 27% 44% 29%
– 65% 35%

Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th

First round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Aurélie Jochaud
LO 		Elsa Caudron
NPA 		Yannick Duterte
PRCF 		Sabrina Ali Benali
NFP–LFI 		Alexis Corbière
LFI diss. 		Éric Verhaeghe
AC 		Pauline Breteau
ENS–HOR 		Antoine Toche
DVD 		Françoise Trova
RN 		Sébastien Atlani
SE
Ifop 25–26 Jun 2024 550 1% 0% 1% 35% 40% 1.5% 10% 1.5% 10% 0%

Second round

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Sabrina Ali Benali
NFP–LFI 		Alexis Corbière
LFI diss.
Ifop 25–26 Jun 2024 550 46% 54%

See also

Notes and references

  1. ^ a b "Comment les instituts de sondage estiment les résultats des élections législatives dès 20 heures". Le Monde. 12 June 2022. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
  2. ^ a b Candidates presented by the national investiture commission of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)
  3. ^ a b UXD, union of the far-right (French: union de l'extrême droite) is the electoral nuance assigned by the Ministry of the Interior to the 63 (initially 62) LR members invested as candidates supported by Éric Ciotti and the RN:
    • "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.
    • Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
    None of these 63 candidates are outgoing deputies in the National Assembly except for Ciotti and Christelle d'Intorni. All other outgoing LR deputies were reinvested separately due to the expulsion vote against Ciotti:
    • Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
    • "Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  4. ^ a b Including miscellaneous far-right candidates
  5. ^ Animalist Party, which is not officially presenting candidates in the 2024 legislative elections:
    • Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  6. ^ Rougerie, Paméla (22 June 2024). "Législatives : tendances, projections de sièges… Comment les instituts conçoivent leurs sondages". Le Parisien. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
  7. ^ "Communiqué de la commission des sondages du 18 juin 2024 au sujet des sondages électoraux relatifs aux élections législatives 2024 et aux projections en sièges". La commission des sondages. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
  8. ^ Including 20–25 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally
  9. ^ a b c d e f Including 10–20 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally
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